Yup I forgot to start wpa_supplicant in my earlier logs but this time I did it and I get pretty much the same thing, but with a little bit more detailed logs...
root beaglebone:~# NetworkManager --debug &
[2] 2902
root beaglebone:~#
(NetworkManager:2902): NetworkManager-WARNING **: <warn> glib-version: cannot handle SIGUSR1 and SIGUSR2 signals. Consider upgrading glib to 2.36.0 or newer
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> NetworkManager (version 1.0.10) is starting...
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Read config: /etc/NetworkManager/NetworkManager.conf
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> init!
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> update_system_hostname
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> interface-parser: parsing file /etc/network/interfaces
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> interface-parser: finished parsing file /etc/network/interfaces
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> guessed connection type (eth0) = 802-3-ethernet
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> update_connection_setting_from_if_block: name:eth0, type:802-3-ethernet, id:Ifupdown (eth0), uuid: 681b428f-beaf-8932-dce4-687ed5bae28e
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> adding eth0 to connections
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> adding iface eth0 to eni_ifaces
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> autoconnect
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> management mode: unmanaged
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> devices added (path: /sys/devices/ocp.2/47810000.mmc/mmc_host/mmc2/mmc2:0001/mmc2:0001:2/wl18xx.2.auto/net/wlan0, iface: wlan0)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> device added (path: /sys/devices/ocp.2/47810000.mmc/mmc_host/mmc2/mmc2:0001/mmc2:0001:2/wl18xx.2.auto/net/wlan0, iface: wlan0): no ifupdown configuration found.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> devices added (path: /sys/devices/ocp.2/481cc000.d_can/net/can0, iface: can0)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> device added (path: /sys/devices/ocp.2/481cc000.d_can/net/can0, iface: can0): no ifupdown configuration found.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> devices added (path: /sys/devices/ocp.2/481d0000.d_can/net/can1, iface: can1)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> device added (path: /sys/devices/ocp.2/481d0000.d_can/net/can1, iface: can1): no ifupdown configuration found.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> devices added (path: /sys/devices/ocp.2/4a100000.ethernet/net/eth0, iface: eth0)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> locking wired connection setting
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> devices added (path: /sys/devices/virtual/net/lo, iface: lo)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> device added (path: /sys/devices/virtual/net/lo, iface: lo): no ifupdown configuration found.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> end _init.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded settings plugin ifupdown: (C) 2008 Canonical Ltd. To report bugs please use the NetworkManager mailing list. (/usr/lib/NetworkManager/libnm-settings-plugin-ifupdown.so)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded settings plugin keyfile: (c) 2007 - 2015 Red Hat, Inc. To report bugs please use the NetworkManager mailing list.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (1416752) ... get_connections.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (1416752) ... get_connections (managed=false): return empty list.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> keyfile: new connection /etc/NetworkManager/system-connections/Hotspot (3e13073d-6d7a-440d-ab2b-4f42c9fdacaf,"Hotspot")
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> keyfile: new connection /etc/NetworkManager/system-connections/modem0 (084cef7e-d695-4677-bca8-8ac435c6f754,"modem0")
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> get unmanaged devices count: 1
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> monitoring kernel firmware directory '/lib/firmware'.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> rfkill0: found WiFi radio killswitch (at /sys/devices/ocp.2/47810000.mmc/mmc_host/mmc2/mmc2:0001/mmc2:0001:2/wl18xx.2.auto/ieee80211/phy0/rfkill0) (driver wl18xx_driver)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> WiFi hardware radio set enabled
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> WWAN hardware radio set enabled
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMVxlanFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMVlanFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMVethFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMTunFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMMacvlanFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMInfinibandFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMGreFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMEthernetFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMBridgeFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMBondFactory (internal)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMWifiFactory (/usr/lib/NetworkManager/libnm-device-plugin-wifi.so)
NetworkManager[2902]: <warn> (/libnm-device-plugin-bluetooth.so): failed to load plugin: /usr/lib/NetworkManager/libnm-device-plugin-bluetooth.so: undefined symbol: g_clear_pointer
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMWwanFactory (/usr/lib/NetworkManager/libnm-device-plugin-wwan.so)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Loaded device plugin: NMAtmManager (/usr/lib/NetworkManager/libnm-device-plugin-adsl.so)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> WiFi enabled by radio killswitch; enabled by state file
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> WWAN enabled by radio killswitch; enabled by state file
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> WiMAX enabled by radio killswitch; enabled by state file
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Networking is enabled by state file
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (eth0): new Ethernet device (carrier: OFF, driver: 'cpsw', ifindex: 4)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (lo): link connected
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (lo): new Generic device (carrier: ON, driver: 'unknown', ifindex: 1)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): using nl80211 for WiFi device control
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): driver supports Access Point (AP) mode
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): new 802.11 WiFi device (carrier: UNKNOWN, driver: 'wl18xx_driver', ifindex: 5)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): device state change: unmanaged -> unavailable (reason 'managed') [10 20 2]
[ 107.592112] wlcore: PHY firmware version: Rev 8.2.0.0.195
[ 107.682702] wlcore: firmware booted (Rev 8.8.0.0.13)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (can0): new Generic device (carrier: UNKNOWN, driver: 'c_can_platform', ifindex: 2)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (can1): new Generic device (carrier: UNKNOWN, driver: 'c_can_platform', ifindex: 3)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> wpa_supplicant running
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0) supports 1 scan SSIDs
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): supplicant interface state: starting -> ready
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> startup complete
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): device state change: unavailable -> disconnected (reason 'supplicant-available') [20 30 42]
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Auto-activating connection 'Hotspot'.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): Activation: starting connection 'Hotspot' (3e13073d-6d7a-440d-ab2b-4f42c9fdacaf)
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): device state change: disconnected -> prepare (reason 'none') [30 40 0]
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> NetworkManager state is now CONNECTING
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): device state change: prepare -> config (reason 'none') [40 50 0]
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): Activation: (wifi) connection 'Hotspot' has security, and secrets exist. No new secrets needed.
NetworkManager[2902]: <warn> (wlan0): Supplicant may not support AP mode; connection may time out.
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Config: added 'ssid' value 'AliAP'
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Config: added 'mode' value '2'
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Config: added 'frequency' value '2412'
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Config: added 'key_mgmt' value 'WPA-PSK'
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Config: added 'psk' value '<omitted>'
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> Config: set interface ap_scan to 2
wlan0: AP mode support not included in the build
NetworkManager[2902]: <info> (wlan0): supplicant interface state: ready -> scanning
root beaglebone:~# ifconfig
eth0 Link encap:Ethernet HWaddr ec:24:b8:cf:e0:be
UP BROADCAST MULTICAST MTU:1500 Metric:1
RX packets:0 errors:0 dropped:0 overruns:0 frame:0
TX packets:0 errors:0 dropped:0 overruns:0 carrier:0
collisions:0 txqueuelen:1000
RX bytes:0 (0.0 B) TX bytes:0 (0.0 B)
Interrupt:56
lo Link encap:Local Loopback
inet addr:127.0.0.1 Mask:255.0.0.0
UP LOOPBACK RUNNING MTU:65536 Metric:1
RX packets:1 errors:0 dropped:0 overruns:0 frame:0
TX packets:1 errors:0 dropped:0 overruns:0 carrier:0
collisions:0 txqueuelen:0
RX bytes:112 (112.0 B) TX bytes:112 (112.0 B)
wlan0 Link encap:Ethernet HWaddr 5c:31:3e:ce:be:5b
UP BROADCAST MULTICAST MTU:1500 Metric:1
RX packets:0 errors:0 dropped:0 overruns:0 frame:0
TX packets:0 errors:0 dropped:0 overruns:0 carrier:0
collisions:0 txqueuelen:1000
RX bytes:0 (0.0 B) TX bytes:0 (0.0 B)
In my set up prior to using NM, I use ifconfig to assign a static IP address of 10.4.30.34 to the wlan0 interface myself. I'd rather use the same IP here and I'm not sure how. and the interface itself isn't getting an IP anyway, so there's still a sticky point :(